2020 Pelicans Prediction
It’s the start of the 2020 NBA season, and I’m certain the Pelicans will be better than expected this season. How will it happen?
Lonzo Ball will have a breakout year
The criticism of Lonzo early in his career has been incessant. He was a historically terrible shooter in his rookie season: FG 36%, 3PT 31%, FT 45%, and it didn’t get much better in year 2. He missed good parts of both of his first two seasons due to injuries and the whole offseason after his rookie season, which likely accounts for the lack of improvement year 1 to 2. Despite proving to be an elite passer and defender right out of the gate, it’s hard to justify a starting spot on an NBA team with shooting numbers like those.
That said, if you’re still stuck in the “Lonzo is a bad shooter” days, it’s time to refresh your perception. You’d be surprised, but I’ve heard well-respected sports journalists still pushing that line. Lonzo got healthy and had a full offseason going into last season where he focused on his shot with Pelicans assistant coach Fred Vinson and Brandon Ingram. The results were immediate. Let’s do a little blind “guess that player.”
Player | 3s/G | 3PT%
Player A | 2.2 | 37.8
Player B | 2.3 | 37.5
Player C | 1.8 | 36.7
Player D | 2.5 | 36.6
Player E | 1.8 | 36.4
Player F | 3.0 | 35.3
Player G | 2.2 | 34.8
Player H | 2.8 | 31.6
Can you pick 2019–20 Lonzo out of the lineup? I’ll give you a hint, Player G is Lebron. Player A is Kawhi. Player C and Player E are 3pt specialists Danny Green and Caris Levert, respectively. Player H, and by far the worst 3pt shooter on this list, is Luka Doncic. Player D is Donovan Mitchell. Player F is Bradley Beal, a superstar known for his 3pt shooting. Nobody ever talks about any of these guys not being able to shoot — just goes to show how much perception matters.
Lonzo is Player B. After one healthy offseason of working on his shot, Lonzo produced a stellar 3 point shooting season on high volume shooting. Maybe defenders still have the wrong perception of him too and are giving him too much space? 37.5% ranks him 7th among point guards who made more than 2 threes a game and played more than 40 games last season. We’re in year 2 of the “rebuild Lonzo’s shooting form” project, and after the results from year 1, it would be no surprise if Lonzo, a well-documented practice-a-holic, takes another leap.
It makes logical sense, too. As a passer Lonzo’s hand-eye coordination and touch are out-of-this-world — surely those traits should translate to a great shot. When you talk about those traits, Steph Curry comes to mind. It’s looking increasingly likely that a clunky childhood shooting form and injury-hampered adjustment to the NBA were the only things between Lonzo and being an elite NBA shooter.
What’s more, as the league adjusts to Lonzo’s shifting shooting scouting report, you have to imagine he’s going to have defenders playing him tighter at the perimeter opening up lanes for him to get to the basket. That’s another, less talked about, hole in his game. I’m not convinced he’s ever going to be an elite finisher at the basket (his nature is a little too cautious at the rim), but he’s so quick and smart I could see him stealing a few more easy ones each game.
The final point on Lonzo is Lonzo as a leader. The guy is a natural older brother and leader who has only ever been a rookie, kid brother to Lebron, and a newcomer to the Pelicans in his first three seasons in the NBA. With Jrue Holiday getting shipped off to Milwaukee, the Pelicans have cleared the way for Lonzo to lead the team. If you look at those epic Chino Hills teams, everybody looked to Lonzo and fed off of his confident example. Do people look to leaders because of their natural confidence or do leaders become confident when people look to them to lead? However the flywheel gets going, it’s going to be hard to stop once it does. All this talk of Lonzo being more vocal with the team in the offseason only supports the idea that Lonzo will fill that leadership role this season.
Judging by the two preseason games, it’s all coming together. Lonzo has a confidence and comfort about his game that hasn’t been there since his UCLA days. His shots look crisp, and he’s taking them without the hesitation that’s plagued him his first 3 seasons in the NBA. Notably, in preseason he showed off a handful of off-the-dribble 3s and even drained a few pull-up mid-range jumpers from inside the arc, a shot he never looked comfortable with over the past 3 years. If those are truly part of his game now — look out.
Still only 23 and in a contract year, I’m betting on Lonzo.
Zion Williamson will be in the MVP race
Last year, in an injury-shortened rookie season, Zion ranked 8th in the league in points per 36 minutes. Better than Anthony Davis, Damian Lillard, and Lebron James to name a few. He did so shooting 58% from the field, far and away the best of the top 20 per 36 scorers. For reference the next closest was MVP-winner Giannis Antetokounmpo at 55%. Sure Zion played in a fast-paced offense (Pelicans ranked 2nd in pace in 2019–20), but he was also a rookie, who jumped into the fray in the middle of the season, and looked sluggish and not in top shape much of the time.
It’s hard to imagine that after a healthy offseason working on his game and getting into peak shape with pro coaching and a full year gelling with his teammates under his belt that Zion would take a step back in year 2. Just taking the minutes restrictions off, which Stan van Gundy reports will be the case, should vault his per game numbers close to his per 36 numbers. Not to mention if he’s improved at all.
To the question of if he’s improved…it isn’t a totally blind experiment. Zion looked energetic, spry, and dominant in big minutes in the Pelicans’ two preseason games. The word sluggish did not come to mind. If that eye test is any indication, he should take a leap forward.
As the season begins Vegas has Zion’s MVP odds in the 16–20 range of most likely players, about the same as Kyrie Irving, Russell Westbrook, Trae Young, and Jimmy Butler. I expect him to be firmly in the top 10 by the All-Star break.
The Pelicans are going to be elite this year
Let’s take last season as evidence. They were the 2nd worst team in The West through January 6th with a 12–25 record and at one point losing 13-in-a-row. Then from January 7th until the season was suspended due to covid in mid-March the Pelicans turned it around, going 16–11 and finding themselves solidly in the playoff pack of The West during that stretch, trailing only the LA teams and OKC. After the restart, they went a disappointing 2–4 in the bubble, missing out on a chance to play into the playoffs.
How to make sense of that rollercoaster ride? Try this as a frame: The Pelicans struggled early in the season without their best player (Zion) and as a team that had never played together before — 4 of their 5 starters and 7 of their 8 highest minute players were new to the team last season (I didn’t check but I’d bet that was the most in the league by a lot). When Zion came back and the team got familiar playing together they started to win. After the covid interruption and restart, the Pelicans failed to regain form in the unique environment of the bubble, unable to adjust as quickly as some of the more experienced teams. If you accept that way of framing it, then last year’s Pelicans were a playoff-caliber team in the highly competitive West.
Now it’s year 2 of the post-AD Pelicans rebuild. A full year and offseason of chemistry-building has passed and only a few roster changes. The most notable being the one-for-one swaps of Steven Adams for Derrick Favors and Eric Bledsoe for Jrue Holiday. The former is a clear upgrade. Same skill set (rim protection, running big man, strong screens), but better. The latter is a downgrade on paper. Again similar skill set (lockdown perimeter defense, competent 3pt shooting, ability to play any backcourt position), but Bledsoe is 2 years older and not the elite scorer anymore that Jrue is currently.
Despite all that though, I think there’s going to be some addition by subtraction with moving on from Jrue Holiday. (It hurts my soul to say because Jrue is a genuinely awesome guy and everybody loves him.) For one, the Pelicans are going to be at their best when the offense revolves around Zion, transition, and Lonzo finding the open guy. Brandon Ingram going iso is a good alternate plan, too. Jrue also represents the last vestige of an era of losing in New Orleans. Not saying they couldn’t have become winners with him, but there’s something refreshing about a totally clean slate. That goes along with the angle of making way for winning-obsessed Lonzo to be the leader as I mentioned above, too.
The other big change from last season is Stan van Gundy in as head coach over Alvin Gentry. On its face that’s a guy with a .577 win percentage replacing a guy with .462 win percentage. Stan van Gundy probably doesn’t deserve to be considered a surething, and some might argue that Stan van Gundy hasn’t been successful in about a decade. But generally when he’s had talent he’s won, and I think his bigger personality and to-the-point style should fit well with a Pelicans roster that is made up of a lot soft-spoken, hardworking guys.
All-in-all this Pelicans team reminds me of the 2012 Warriors, when Steph Curry burst onto the scene as a star and it started to take form that the Warriors were destined to be something special. The first game is about to start! I’ll elaborate on this later!